How US Senate Russia sanctions could spell 100% tariffs for India, China

A major sanctions package targeting Russia has progressed through the US Senate with overwhelming bipartisan support, clearing the first legislative hurdle toward potential enactment. The bill, named after late Senator Lindsey Graham, a longtime Ukraine advocate, advanced this week with 86 senators voting in favour, allowing it to proceed to the House of Representatives for consideration.

The legislation aims to restrict Russia's economic capacity to sustain its war in Ukraine through a combination of sanctions and tariffs. Key measures include new sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin and over 20 senior officials and companies involved in the defence sector, as well as targeting Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers that circumvent international restrictions on energy shipments.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who attended Graham's funeral in Washington, watched the Senate vote from the gallery and subsequently expressed support for the measure on social media, calling it a step toward implementing Graham's vision and advancing peace efforts.

However, the bill's path forward faces potential complications. President Donald Trump has directed lawmakers to expand the legislation to include Iran-related tariffs, a move that analysts suggest could deter Democratic support and delay proceedings. According to David Smith, an associate professor at the University of Sydney's US Studies Centre, Democrats may resist broadening tariff authority beyond Russia, particularly regarding countries purchasing Iranian oil such as China, preferring sanctions-focused measures instead.

The House is currently in summer recess, meaning a delay before the bill can be considered there. Despite this setback, Smith indicated that strong Democratic backing for Ukraine support could facilitate passage once the chamber reconvenes, provided the Iran provisions do not fundamentally alter the bill's scope.