Knesset dissolves: How will Israel vote in October’s general election?

Israel's unicameral parliament, the Knesset, will dissolve this week, paving the way for national elections on October 27, 2026. This election marks a historic milestone—the first time the 120-member body has completed a full four-year term since 1988. The election occurs against a backdrop of significant regional conflict and domestic political turbulence that has defined the current government's tenure.

The outgoing Knesset has overseen Israel's military operations in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attacks, as well as conflicts with Iran and Lebanon. The parliament has also supported the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, policies that have drawn international criticism. Allegations of torture, sexual abuse, and civilian casualties—including children—have been leveled against Israeli security forces, with even allied nations expressing concern about the government's conduct.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's administration has been characterized as the country's most right-wing government. Netanyahu himself faces corruption accusations and has been criticized for efforts to weaken Israel's judiciary and politicize security services. Despite these controversies, opinion polling suggests Israeli society continues shifting rightward, complicating predictions about electoral outcomes.

Israel's electoral system operates on nationwide proportional representation, with voters selecting party lists rather than individual candidates. The Knesset's 120 seats are allocated based on each party's vote share, provided they exceed a 3.25 percent threshold. No party has ever won an outright majority, making coalition formation essential to government formation. Following elections, the president designates the politician best positioned to assemble a governing coalition.

Recent polling by Channel 12 indicates that Gadi Eizenkot, a former military chief of staff leading the newly formed Yashar party, may pose the strongest challenge to Netanyahu. Yashar is projected to win 23 seats compared to 22 for Netanyahu's Likud party, though both would require coalition partners to govern. Eizenkot, described as centrist, has criticized Netanyahu's handling of regional conflicts and domestic divisions. Other contenders include former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, campaigning jointly as Together and projected to secure 16 seats.