Iraq faces crisis as Shia armed groups defy disarmament

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi confronts a deepening political and security challenge as Iraq pursues a consolidation of armed power under state control. The government has set a September 30 deadline for all weapons to be restricted to official state forces, a move driven partly by US pressure and Iraq's need to stabilize its economy and attract foreign investment. Several armed factions, including Saraya al-Salam, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Kataib al-Imam Ali, have signaled willingness to integrate into the national military structure. However, significant obstacles remain. Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-aligned paramilitary organization and one of Iraq's most heavily armed groups, has explicitly refused to comply, declaring its intention to maintain and expand its arsenal under the banner of "resistance weapons." Harakat al-Nujaba has similarly resisted, arguing that the disarmament effort should target illegal weapons fueling instability rather than those held by fighters who protected Iraqi territory and religious sites. The disarmament push reflects Iraq's economic vulnerabilities. Oil revenues constitute over 90 percent of the state budget, yet disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have reduced exports from 3.3 million barrels per day to approximately 600,000 barrels per day as of March. Political analysts and academics have raised concerns about the initiative's viability. Talib Mohammed Karim, a professor of political thought at Mustansiriya University, contends that armed factions operating outside state authority fundamentally undermine Iraq's constitutional framework. He also expressed skepticism about groups claiming to have agreed to disarm, suggesting such commitments may be largely performative. Political analyst Kadhim al-Hajj argued that justifications based on foreign military presence no longer hold weight given current regional dynamics, and emphasized that any disarmament process must remain strictly an Iraqi sovereign matter rather than appearing as external coercion.