New Party: Why Turkiye’s opposition suffered a split and what that means

Turkish opposition politics has undergone a significant realignment following the formation of a new political party by former CHP chairman Özgur Özel and approximately 90 defecting lawmakers. The split emerged after a May court decision annulled the CHP congress that had elected Özel to lead the party, citing alleged voter fraud and reinstating his predecessor Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Özel and his supporters characterized the ruling as judicial interference in party affairs rather than a legitimate legal outcome.

The practical consequences of the court decision were swift. Police enforced the annulment at CHP headquarters, after which Kılıçdaroğlu's administration initiated disciplinary proceedings against Özel's associates. The government has maintained that the case represents an internal party dispute and demonstrates the functioning of democratic institutions, rejecting opposition claims of judicial interference.

The CHP's recent electoral performance had positioned it as a genuine threat to President Erdoğan's AK Party. In 2024 local elections, the secularist CHP achieved significant victories in major cities including Istanbul and Ankara, delivering the AK Party its worst electoral result in over two decades. However, subsequent criminal investigations—predominantly alleging corruption in CHP-administered municipalities—have resulted in numerous detentions of elected officials and party members, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, whom the opposition characterizes as a political crackdown.

The parliamentary arithmetic has shifted dramatically following the party formation. The AK Party currently holds 277 of 600 parliamentary seats, while the CHP's representation has collapsed to 44 MPs following the departure of 91 lawmakers to the New Party. Though the New Party is anticipated to retain most CHP voters and present a reconstituted challenge to Erdoğan, the broader fragmentation of the opposition may ultimately strengthen the president's position in the NATO-member country.