Five years after Saied’s power grab, Tunisians are no better off

Five years after Tunisian President Kais Saied suspended parliament on July 25, 2021, the country has failed to deliver on promises of reform and economic improvement. Saied's consolidation of power, initially framed as a response to corruption and a call to implement constitutional provisions, has not translated into tangible benefits for citizens or the economy.

In the immediate aftermath of the power grab, the United States signaled concern by reducing military assistance to Tunisia by 50 percent. When the Biden administration appointed a new ambassador to Tunisia in February 2023 with instructions to guide the country back toward representative democracy, the situation deteriorated further. Within weeks, political party leaders were arrested en masse, followed by crackdowns on civil society organizations and media outlets.

The erosion of freedoms has been measurable and substantial. Tunisia's Freedom House index score dropped from 70 to 42 between 2020 and 2026, reflecting a significant contraction in civil liberties and democratic space. Simultaneously, the economic situation has stagnated rather than improved. Real GDP growth and unemployment levels in 2026 remain comparable to 2018 figures, before Saied assumed power, while the country's debt burden has worsened, with the debt-to-GDP ratio climbing from approximately 73 percent to over 81 percent.

Initially, some observers believed Saied's actions reflected popular demand for accountability and an end to corruption. However, key figures who supported the transition, including Saied's closest adviser, later distanced themselves from the consolidation of power. The promised transformation has not materialized, leaving Tunisians without the economic gains or democratic reforms that were anticipated.