German arms export licences for Israel surge with focus on sub project
Germany has approved approximately 800 million euros in arms export licences to Israel in the first five months of 2026, exceeding the previous 20 months combined. Over 60 percent of the value is allocated to a single unnamed maritime project, likely a submarine manufactured by German company TKMS. The approvals were concentrated in April and May 2026.
Germany's federal government has confirmed a substantial increase in approved arms exports to Israel during the opening months of 2026. The approvals, totalling nearly 800 million euros, represent a significant acceleration compared to the preceding 20-month period, according to a government response to a parliamentary inquiry. The majority of these licences received clearance during April and May alone.
Analysts have identified a submarine project as the probable focus of these approvals. The INS Drakon, a Dolphin II-class submarine manufactured by German shipbuilder TKMS, was handed over to the Israeli Navy following sea trials at a Kiel shipyard. The vessel's estimated value stands at approximately 480 million euros, accounting for the bulk of the approved export value. Reports suggest the submarine may be equipped with a vertical launching system capable of deploying nuclear-capable cruise missiles, a configuration that would make Israel only the second nation after South Korea to operate such a system on a conventionally powered submarine.
During testing phases, the submarine's tower was obscured with protective coverings to prevent external observation of its weapons configuration. The vessel's design would theoretically provide a sea-based second-strike nuclear capability. In May, TKMS entered into a memorandum of understanding with Elbit Systems, Israel's largest private defence contractor, signalling expanded future cooperation.
The German Foreign Office and Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy declined to provide commentary on the matter. Max Mutschler, a senior researcher at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies, characterised the government's lack of explicit disclosure as typical of broader opacity in arms export procedures. The submarine order originated in 2012, though previous uncertainty surrounded whether export approval had been formally granted, with conflicting reports emerging last year regarding the licence status.
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