Pakistan’s Kashmir votes: Why the election hinges on 12 disputed seats

Pakistan-administered Kashmir, formally designated Azad Jammu and Kashmir, has experienced significant civil unrest since early June, marked by clashes between protesters and security forces that have claimed nearly 40 lives. The region has endured extended disruptions including bank closures, suspended telecommunications, and supply chain interruptions affecting essential goods. The Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee, the movement driving the protests, was banned by local authorities and its leadership has been arrested, gone underground, or continued organising from protest encampments.

The protest movement initially focused on economic grievances—subsidised flour and electricity costs—but has broadened into a 38-point platform. The central demand concerns 12 assembly seats within the 45-seat Legislative Assembly that are reserved exclusively for Kashmiri refugees residing in Pakistan rather than within the territory itself. The government maintains these seats cannot be modified without constitutional amendment, while the protest movement seeks their complete abolition.

The refugee seat arrangement originates from electoral frameworks established in 1960 and reinforced through subsequent legislation in 1964 and 1970. The system was formalised in the 1974 Interim Constitution and reaffirmed by the 2018 constitutional amendment. According to a former chief justice of the AJK Supreme Court, the arrangement traces to the territory's founding declaration in 1947, reflecting the collective will of the Kashmiri people.

Elections for the Legislative Assembly, originally scheduled for July 27, have been restructured across three voting dates. Mirpur division proceeded as planned, while Muzaffarabad division and the 12 refugee seats vote on August 2, with Poonch division—where tensions remain most acute—voting August 10. The protest movement's leadership has called for an election boycott and will not participate in the ballot.