US tariffs ‘strengthen’ Lula against Bolsonaro’s son in upcoming elections

Brazil's presidential election cycle is being shaped significantly by recent US trade actions. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, is competing against Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently imprisoned on a 27-year sentence. The first round of voting is scheduled for October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25 if both candidates advance.

The Trump administration announced 25 percent tariffs on numerous Brazilian products following a yearlong investigation into Brazil's trade practices. The US cited concerns including Brazil's preference for its state-run Pix payment system over private alternatives, an 18 percent tariff on US ethanol, and insufficient enforcement of deforestation regulations. These tariffs represent a rebuilding of trade barriers after the US Supreme Court invalidated emergency powers Trump had previously used to impose broader tariffs on most trading partners.

Lula has positioned himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty in response to the tariffs and sanctions. Political analysts note that the trade measures are strengthening his electoral prospects, as Brazilian voters express frustration with US trade actions. A Quaest poll for Folha de S Paulo indicated Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro 45 percent to 37 percent in a second-round matchup.

The tariff situation reflects broader geopolitical tensions. Trump had previously imposed tariffs reaching 50 percent on Brazil in connection with criminal investigations into Jair Bolsonaro's alleged plotting to overturn the 2022 election results. Trump had characterized that investigation as a "witch-hunt." The former president had been an early supporter of Jair Bolsonaro, recording a video endorsement before the 2022 election and drawing comparisons between their political styles.