The Morocco-Algeria rivalry is remaking Europe’s North Africa policy
Morocco and Algeria's rivalry is increasingly influencing European governments' North Africa policies, as demonstrated by high-level visits from France, Germany, and Spain within six days in July. The competition centers on Western Sahara, where Morocco seeks recognition of its sovereignty claim while Algeria backs the Polisario Front's independence demand. Both countries offer significant strategic advantages—Morocco provides counterterrorism cooperation and migration management, while Algeria possesses major natural gas reserves and regional influence.
The intensifying competition between Morocco and Algeria for regional influence is reshaping how European governments approach their relationships in North Africa, with diplomatic decisions toward one country increasingly affecting ties with the other. Recent high-level visits underscore this dynamic, as European leaders navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of the Maghreb.
Within a six-day period in July, three significant diplomatic missions illustrated the stakes involved. France's Prime Minister led a substantial ministerial delegation to Morocco, signaling Paris's deepening alignment with Rabat. Simultaneously, Algeria's President was in Berlin strengthening ties with Germany, while Spain's Prime Minister traveled to Algiers to address diplomatic tensions stemming from Madrid's recent shift toward Morocco. These overlapping visits demonstrate how European capitals must carefully manage their engagement with both nations.
The fundamental source of tension between the two countries centers on Western Sahara. Morocco controls most of the territory and has made recognition of its sovereignty claim or autonomy proposal a prerequisite for strong bilateral relationships. Algeria, conversely, supports the Polisario Front's independence demands and has responded forcefully when European governments endorse Morocco's position on the disputed territory.
Both nations wield substantial leverage over European interests. Morocco offers intelligence sharing, counterterrorism cooperation, assistance with migration management, investment opportunities, and access to African economic networks. Algeria possesses major natural gas reserves, a significant domestic market, and considerable influence over security and diplomatic matters throughout the Maghreb and Sahel regions. This mutual importance means European governments cannot compartmentalize their relationships with each country.
France's 2024 decision to support Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara exemplifies these interconnected consequences. President Macron's endorsement of Morocco's autonomy proposal as a conflict resolution basis resolved long-standing tensions between Paris and Rabat but immediately triggered a crisis with Algeria, which recalled its ambassador. France's subsequent strategic partnership expansion with Morocco—encompassing energy cooperation, investment, security arrangements, migration management, and infrastructure development—demonstrates that Paris views its shift as foundational rather than merely tactical. The two governments are even exploring a direct electricity link to transport Moroccan renewable energy to France and preparing for a comprehensive bilateral treaty.
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