Can Pakistan-administered Kashmir’s election overcome a violent summer?

Pakistan-administered Kashmir is proceeding toward provincial legislative elections despite significant civil unrest that has marked the territory since early June. The region's Chief Election Commissioner announced that voting, originally scheduled for a single date in late July, would be split across three separate occasions to address security concerns stemming from ongoing tensions. The Mirpur division will vote on July 27 as originally planned, while the Poonch division—the epicenter of recent protests—will hold elections on August 10. Muzaffarabad and seats reserved for refugees from Indian-administered Kashmir now residing elsewhere in Pakistan will vote on August 2.

The core grievance driving the unrest involves reserved legislative seats designated for refugees from Indian-administered Kashmir. Protest movements, particularly the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee, have demanded the elimination of these seats, contending that only individuals currently residing in Pakistan-administered Kashmir should be eligible to contest regional elections. These demonstrations have resulted in dozens of deaths and sustained civil disruption throughout the territory.

Despite the underlying tensions, the capital Muzaffarabad displays typical pre-election activity, with political party banners and campaign materials visible throughout the city. However, public sentiment regarding participation appears mixed. Some residents express sympathy with protest movements while simultaneously questioning the legitimacy of the electoral process itself, citing concerns about candidate quality and the exclusion of protest movement representatives from ballots following the banning of activist organizations in June.