Hamas’s new leader must bridge a movement divided over Iran

Khalil al-Hayya's election as Hamas leader represents far more than a routine leadership transition. The razor-thin margin of victory—decided by just one vote after nearly two years of collective leadership—exposes fundamental fractures within the Palestinian movement. Al-Hayya, who previously served as deputy to Yahya Sinwar in Gaza and was part of the five-member council that led Hamas following Sinwar's death in October 2024, narrowly prevailed over Khaled Meshaal, the former political bureau chief. The close result underscores the central challenge confronting Hamas: whether the organization can reconcile its competing internal currents or whether al-Hayya's victory will entrench the influence of the faction most closely aligned with Iran.

Hamas's organizational structure and leadership dynamics have evolved significantly since its founding in December 1987. The movement emerged from the Gaza branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and incorporated affiliated organizations operating across the Levant, including entities in the West Bank, Jordan, and the diaspora communities in Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Initially, the Gaza-based Muslim Brotherhood leadership maintained overall control through a Shura Council system that elected an executive office. The founding executive office, comprising seven members including Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdulaziz al-Rantissi, formally established the Islamic Resistance Movement on December 9, 1987.

Israeli security operations fundamentally altered Hamas's organizational trajectory. Severe crackdowns and mass detention campaigns depleted the movement's first and second-tier leadership in Gaza, prompting external support networks to intervene. Mousa Abu Marzouk, who had been pursuing doctoral studies in the United States, was dispatched to Gaza to reconstruct the damaged organization. This intervention marked the beginning of a gradual shift in leadership authority from Gaza toward the diaspora, a transformation that would shape Hamas's structure and strategic orientation for decades to come.