Hamas leadership run-off expected between Meshaal and al-Hayya

Hamas is preparing to conduct a decisive run-off election to determine its next political bureau chief, marking a critical moment in the Palestinian organization's leadership transition. The process was initiated to address vacancies created by Israeli operations that eliminated several top-ranking officials, including prominent figures Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar. The election represents a significant juncture as Hamas navigates internal renewal amid the ongoing Israeli military campaign.

According to Hamas sources, the internal ballot has narrowed to a closely contested race between Khaled Meshaal, a former political leader, and Khalil al-Hayya, who previously served as deputy chairman. The winner will assume leadership from the current transitional council, which assumed control following Sinwar's assassination in Gaza in October 2024. The newly elected leader's term will extend until 2027, when the next scheduled elections are due.

Hamas's internal governance structure requires candidates to secure an absolute majority—50 percent plus one vote—within the Shura Council, the organization's consultative body, to win outright. Since neither candidate achieved this threshold in initial voting rounds, the run-off was scheduled to resolve the deadlock. According to a 2021 organizational framework, the top two leadership positions must include representation from Gaza, one of three geographical divisions alongside the West Bank and the diaspora. Should al-Hayya, who represents Gaza, not secure the top position, he is expected to assume the deputy political chief role.

Hamas sources indicated that the organization has modified its typical electoral procedures due to current circumstances. Rather than involving the entire grassroots membership, only a narrower group participated in the political bureau elections to complete the current electoral term that began in 2021. Security challenges imposed by the war and the urgent need to fill vacancies in the Shura Council resulting from member deaths have delayed the leadership selection process. Despite these constraints, sources rejected reports of a shift toward clandestine or collective leadership, asserting that the newly elected chief's identity will be formally announced publicly once voting concludes.

Both Hamas sources confirmed that comprehensive grassroots elections involving all three traditional regions are scheduled to commence next year, contingent on prevailing security conditions. Palestinian political analyst Abdullah Aqrabawi noted that Hamas's internal dynamics can no longer be viewed as isolated affairs of a local organization.