How US-Iran escalation will test Iraq’s balancing act

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, a 40-year-old businessman with no prior political experience, visited the White House where President Trump expressed warmth and enthusiasm about deepening economic cooperation. Trump and al-Zaidi pledged to strengthen economic ties and increase Iraq's oil production, with Trump promising multiple deals during their Oval Office meeting.

According to a well-informed source, Iraqi officials have also scheduled meetings with US administration officials and the International Monetary Fund, with Iraq seeking to secure an IMF loan of up to $8 billion. The Iraqi government had previously indicated it expected several oil and gas agreements to be signed during al-Zaidi's US visit.

However, the visit also exposed the pressures Iraq faces in managing its relationships with competing powers. Later the same day, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth met with al-Zaidi and posted on social media that Iraq must assert its sovereignty and disarm Iran-aligned militias that he blamed for frequent attacks on US forces. Both al-Zaidi and Trump stated that remaining US forces in Iraq, numbering fewer than 2,000, would completely withdraw by September 30, the same date al-Zaidi pledged that armed factions would disarm.

Kataib Hezbollah, one of the largest groups within the Popular Mobilisation Forces founded in 2014 to counter ISIS, is part of Iran's so-called axis of resistance alongside Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. On Tuesday, the group signaled its readiness to join military operations against the United States if necessary, illustrating the challenge al-Zaidi faces in satisfying both Washington and Tehran-aligned forces operating within Iraq's borders.