Strait of Hormuz: What has happened since the US-Iran MoU on June 17?

The Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometre-wide maritime chokepoint connecting the oil and gas-rich Gulf to global markets, has become a flashpoint once more despite a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran signed on June 17. The narrow passage typically handles approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily, representing about one-fifth of worldwide oil consumption before recent hostilities.

Since the ceasefire announcement, shipping activity has remained depressed. According to PortWatch data, only 513 vessels have transited the strait, far below the pre-conflict average of roughly 100 ships per day. At least five commercial vessels have been struck in separate incidents. The Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely was hit by a projectile on June 25 southeast of Oman's port of Dahit, while the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku was damaged by a one-way attack drone on June 27 while carrying over 2 million barrels of crude oil. Three additional vessels were attacked on July 6 and 7.

Tensions have escalated dramatically following these attacks. Iran accused the targeted ships of attempting passage without seeking approval, while the United States responded with strikes on Iranian coastal cities and the capital Tehran. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on multiple Gulf nations. US President Donald Trump stated he believes the truce is "over," while Tehran has threatened to shut down the strait again.

The waterway had been effectively closed by Iran after US-Israeli bombing began on February 28, with the United States subsequently imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The reopening following the June 17 agreement now faces renewed uncertainty, with significant implications for global energy markets and trade that have depended on uninterrupted passage through this critical chokepoint.